PAC FIRE Planner

How much you need to retire early, and how much to invest every month to get there. Each answer is tested on 2,000 futures, twice: random markets and real market history.

yrs
yrs
%
Lifestyle
Adults in the household

Monthly, today's money, adjusted for the country's cost of living. Tap a tag to move a line between essentials and extras.

Essentials
Extras
FIRE type

Home
Children

Each child adds a monthly cost (today's money) from their birth year until they are independent. Only the years after you retire need extra capital.

yrs

Your split, and what you expect each asset to do. Growth is yearly and after inflation. The last column shows what history delivered (used by block Monte Carlo).

AssetSplitGrowthVolatilityHistory
Total

Precious metals are half gold, half an index of all precious metals (gold, silver and platinum).

Correlations between assets (Monte Carlo)

1 moves together, 0 unrelated, −1 opposite.

%/yr
pts
yrs

Random inflation applies to Monte Carlo. Block Monte Carlo replays real US inflation, moved to your average.

%
%
%
%/yr
months
%/yr
Sell months

The only months you top up the cash buffer (4 suggested). A month is skipped while stocks are in a dip.

%
months
yrs
yrs
What Minimal assumes

Standard, slightly cautious. Switch to Complete to change any of them.

    Results

    calculating

    Calculating the example plan…

    Your money over time, today's money

    • 8 in 10 futures
    • Middle half
    • Median
    • Capital you need
    Show the numbers

    When you retire

    Monthly spending in retirement

    In today's money, for the first month of retirement.

    Retire into real history

    What would have happened if you had retired on a real date with the capital above, spending as in your plan. Real returns and inflation from history replace the simulations, with inflation moved to your country's average. Sell months follow the real calendar.

    Start
    Capital

    • Your money, today's money
    • Starting capital
    • Stocks 10% or more below their peak: no top-ups
    Show the numbers

    Saved plans

    Plans are kept in this browser only. Tick two to compare them.

      How the numbers work

      • Capital you need is the smallest amount, rounded up, that runs out before your "plan until" age in no more than your accepted share of futures, if you retire in January of your target year. It is in today's money.
      • Invest every month is the smallest fixed monthly amount, rounded up, that keeps the whole plan within that share, counting what you already have invested. If your money is short of the capital in January of the target year, you keep investing for another year, up to the limit. After that you retire regardless.
      • Waiting for a dip keeps new money in cash until stocks are the chosen percentage below their peak (today counts as a peak), and invests anyway after the maximum wait. Money already invested stays invested.
      • In retirement you hold a cash buffer of several months of spending. It is topped up only in your sell months, and not while stocks are in a dip. If the cash would not cover next month, just one month is sold.
      • Taxes are charged on the gain part of each sale, using your average purchase cost. A yearly wealth or stamp tax is taken each January, and cash interest is taxed at the "other" rate. Country rates are rough starting points checked in October 2026. Check your own situation.
      • Inflation is random. In Monte Carlo it drifts around your average and sometimes spikes by 5 points, then fades. Block Monte Carlo replays real US inflation month by month, moved to your average, so 2022 comes with its bond losses. Spending follows inflation; the monthly investment and a mortgage payment stay fixed in money, so inflation erodes them.
      • Monte Carlo draws random monthly returns from the growth, volatility and correlations in Complete. Block Monte Carlo joins random blocks of real monthly returns, after inflation, from history: US and developed-world stocks (Ken French Data Library), US 10-year Treasuries and Baa corporate bonds (rebuilt from FRED yields), and precious metals, half gold and half the all-precious-metals index (World Bank prices).
      • Limits of the history: it starts in 1990, so it misses the 1970s inflation and the early-1980s bond crash. US stocks grew about 8% a year above inflation and gold rallied, so the history leans optimistic. Bond series come from monthly averages, which smooths their swings. Corporate bonds ignore defaults, and the data are in US dollars, so currency moves are not included.
      • Minimal fixes the settings listed in its plan panel, slightly cautious: returns half a point below Complete's (in both methods), inflation half a point above your country's, and cash at 2%.
      • Not included: state pension, other income in retirement, and cutting spending in bad years. This is a planning simulation, not financial advice.

      Calculating the example plan…